As some have since telegraphed in public, US Federal Reserve officials concluded in private earlier this month that they should soon moderate the pace of interest-rate increases, likely leaning toward a 50 basis-point hike in December. And while some economic observers have predicted a recession with near certainty for months, Fed staff told officials during a Nov. 1-2 gathering that their assessment of the risk is about 50-50. However, this was the first such warning since the Fed began raising rates in March. Markets Wednesday seemed to take their cue from the prospect for shrinking rate hik.......